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How low will Bitcoin fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

YES means Below $55,000.00

24h volume
5,240
1.58M lifetime
Open interest
521.8k
+9,721 over 7d
Spread
1¢
3,772 × 4.61 at the touch
24h range
17¢ – 19¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%+2

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 84¢
24h low 17¢24h high 19¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,01128¢
  • ask3,72127¢
  • ask6326¢
  • ask9.4325¢
  • ask3,33324¢
  • ask2.6323¢
  • ask2,09118¢
  • ask4.6117¢
spread1¢mid 17¢
  • bid3,77216¢
  • bid1,62415¢
  • bid10014¢
  • bid1,13612¢
  • bid60611¢
  • bid1,13510¢
  • bid1,1109¢
  • bid1,8428¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $55000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
55000
ticker
KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago18¢0.05bought yes
2h ago17¢25bought yes
2h ago17¢4.85bought yes
2h ago17¢221bought yes
2h ago17¢1.46bought yes
2h ago18¢11bought yes
3h ago17¢595bought no
3h ago17¢0.13bought no
3h ago18¢26bought yes
6h ago17¢2.15bought no
6h ago17¢2,379bought no
6h ago18¢244bought yes
6h ago18¢5bought yes
6h ago18¢1bought yes
8h ago17¢4.89bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.