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Cabinet member leaving·closes in 2mo

Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Dec 2026?

YES means Before Dec 2026

24h volume
21
2,144 lifetime
Open interest
1,724
Spread
4¢
14 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%−8

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 52¢

YES bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1397¢
  • ask12984¢
  • ask40783¢
  • ask14382¢
  • ask10178¢
  • ask4577¢
  • ask8576¢
  • ask25052¢
spread4¢mid 50¢
  • bid1448¢
  • bid2047¢
  • bid1746¢
  • bid25045¢
  • bid4335¢
  • bid4734¢
  • bid5233¢
  • bid5632¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-26DEC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15h ago45¢5.29bought no
15h ago46¢15bought no
2d ago53¢7.75bought no
2d ago53¢3.29bought no
3d ago64¢7.53bought yes
3d ago56¢5bought yes
3d ago55¢3.61bought yes
4d ago49¢0.76bought no
4d ago48¢4.24bought no
7d ago47¢5bought no
7d ago47¢4.7bought no
7d ago46¢24bought no
7d ago47¢2.63bought no
8d ago50¢97bought yes
10d ago49¢1.82bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.