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Cabinet member leaving·closes in 1mo

Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Nov 2026?

YES means Before Nov 2026

24h volume
0
1,547 lifetime
Open interest
1,446
+1,445 over 90d
Spread
3¢
7.44 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
43 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 68¢

YES bid / ask
32¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 68¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2675¢
  • ask4774¢
  • ask41973¢
  • ask4472¢
  • ask5469¢
  • ask3768¢
  • ask25037¢
  • ask1035¢
spread3¢mid 34¢
  • bid7.4432¢
  • bid2431¢
  • bid25930¢
  • bid2421¢
  • bid5020¢
  • bid2718¢
  • bid6117¢
  • bid8316¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-26NOV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 43 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago22¢7.9bought no
2d ago37¢1.23bought no
2d ago37¢7.2bought no
2d ago36¢5bought no
2d ago37¢22bought yes
2d ago37¢3.45bought yes
3d ago37¢1.55bought no
3d ago37¢5bought no
8d ago37¢26bought yes
8d ago37¢5bought yes
8d ago89¢1.18bought yes
12d ago63¢5bought no
17d ago55¢10bought yes
17d ago52¢0.43bought no
17d ago57¢48bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.