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Cabinet member leaving·closes in 3mo

Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jan 2027?

YES means Before Jan 2027

24h volume
226
4,743 lifetime
Open interest
2,627
+1,587 over 30d
Spread
4¢
15 × 18 at the touch
24h range
54¢ – 71¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
66%+7

A YES contract costs 66¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
34%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 66¢
NO bid / ask
34¢ / 38¢
24h low 54¢24h high 71¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10488¢
  • ask3087¢
  • ask9483¢
  • ask21782¢
  • ask14975¢
  • ask6474¢
  • ask25067¢
  • ask1866¢
spread4¢mid 64¢
  • bid1562¢
  • bid8061¢
  • bid25760¢
  • bid5950¢
  • bid1449¢
  • bid8048¢
  • bid4447¢
  • bid10946¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 2, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-27JAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
38m ago65¢72bought yes
38m ago66¢58bought yes
38m ago65¢19bought yes
14h ago63¢15bought yes
14h ago63¢3.01bought yes
14h ago62¢12bought yes
14h ago64¢18bought yes
14h ago61¢5bought yes
14h ago65¢24bought yes
1d ago59¢18bought no
1d ago63¢15bought yes
3d ago65¢5bought no
3d ago64¢250bought no
3d ago55¢13bought no
3d ago65¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.