Will Democrats win exactly 45 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?
YES means 45
- 24h volume
- 0
- 80 lifetime
- Open interest
- 80
- Spread
- 2¢
- 1,000 × 1,046 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 1 recent trades
A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Democratic party has won exactly 45 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
- opened
- Feb 5 · 12:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 45
- cap
- 45
- ticker
- KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E45
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 31 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.