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How many House seats will Democrats win in California?·closes in 14mo

Will Democrats win exactly 46 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?

YES means 46

24h volume
0
763 lifetime
Open interest
757
Spread
5¢
1,000 × 984 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask54743¢
  • ask1,33742¢
  • ask4541¢
  • ask25934¢
  • ask1533¢
  • ask118¢
  • ask5005¢
  • ask9845¢
spread5¢mid 3¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won exactly 46 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
46
cap
46
ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E46
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago1¢20bought yes
16d ago5¢20bought yes
17d ago5¢20bought yes
1mo ago5¢20bought yes
1mo ago5¢20bought yes
1mo ago5¢20bought yes
1mo ago2¢1bought no
1mo ago5¢31bought yes
2mo ago1¢4bought yes
2mo ago1¢579bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.