galdor.xyz
Admin
How many House seats will Democrats win in California?·closes in 14mo

Will Democrats win exactly 47 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?

YES means 47

24h volume
0
2,863 lifetime
Open interest
1,106
+148 over 7d
Spread
5¢
505 × 55 at the touch
24h range
19¢ – 20¢
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 85¢
24h low 19¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won exactly 47 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
47
cap
47
ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E47
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago20¢144bought yes
7d ago19¢4.12bought yes
7d ago19¢7.88bought yes
12d ago14¢7.88bought no
14d ago13¢20bought yes
15d ago18¢7.88bought yes
16d ago19¢4.98bought yes
19d ago16¢6bought no
23d ago19¢20bought no
24d ago16¢20bought no
28d ago11¢119bought yes
28d ago11¢6bought yes
28d ago11¢30bought yes
28d ago11¢45bought yes
28d ago11¢65bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.