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How many House seats will Democrats win in California?·closes in 14mo

Will Democrats win exactly 48 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?

YES means 48

24h volume
0
8,706 lifetime
Open interest
4,985
Spread
6¢
120 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
67%

A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
33%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 68¢
NO bid / ask
32¢ / 38¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,18588¢
  • ask6,66387¢
  • ask60786¢
  • ask55084¢
  • ask80082¢
  • ask11081¢
  • ask15077¢
  • ask50068¢
spread6¢mid 65¢
  • bid12062¢
  • bid50061¢
  • bid15057¢
  • bid5245¢
  • bid70944¢
  • bid2,47736¢
  • bid1,78830¢
  • bid4,97829¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won exactly 48 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 5 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 24, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
48
cap
48
ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E48
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago67¢500bought yes
6d ago68¢171bought no
6d ago68¢37bought no
7d ago68¢74bought no
7d ago68¢30bought no
7d ago69¢5bought no
7d ago69¢2bought no
7d ago69¢23bought no
7d ago70¢5bought no
7d ago70¢5bought no
11d ago74¢12bought yes
12d ago76¢3bought yes
12d ago76¢2bought yes
13d ago71¢20bought yes
13d ago70¢7.88bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.