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Next Canada federal election winner·closes in 50mo

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

YES means Liberal Party

24h volume
0
2 lifetime
Open interest
2
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
54%

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
46%

costs 45¢

YES bid / ask
55¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 45¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5,00098¢
  • ask3,00087¢
  • ask20086¢
  • ask5385¢
  • ask20065¢
spread10¢mid 60¢
  • bid20055¢
  • bid4046¢
  • bid2,50045¢
  • bid1,92319¢
  • bid20018¢
  • bid671¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Liberal Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 4:30 PM UTC
closes
Oct 15, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 15, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCANELECTION-29OCT15-LIB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago54¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.