Canadian provincial snap elections·closes in 16mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the government of Newfoundland and Labrador calls a snap provincial election before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Newfoundland and Labrador

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/ 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 94¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the government of Newfoundland and Labrador calls a snap provincial election after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A snap election is one called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest date legally required. The announcement must be made by a person or body with the legal authority to call the election and must specify an actual election date. Where a province has no fixed election date in force, the reference date is the latest date on which the election is legally required, being five years from the return of the writs for that province's most recent general election A province holding its already-scheduled fixed-date election is NOT a snap election Each province's market resolves on its own call only. A snap election in one province does NOT resolve any other province's market Yes It does not matter whether the early election follows a lost confidence vote or a premier's own choice

opened
Aug 24 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCANSNAPPROV-28-NL
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Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.