Capital controls·closes in 28mo

Will Trump impose capital controls before 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
6,032 lifetime
Open interest
2,661
−61 over 90d
Spread
65 × 305 at the touch
24h range
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 83¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

10¢15¢20¢25¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,46687¢
  • ask53276¢
  • ask2,39369¢
  • ask3,05868¢
  • ask3,00050¢
  • ask2,51649¢
  • ask4948¢
  • ask30522¢
spreadmid 20¢
  • bid6517¢
  • bid20013¢
  • bid1
  • bid1.19
  • bid28
  • bid40
  • bid52
  • bid3
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States has imposed new capital controls in an attempt to limit capital from leaving the United States and going to any country (as opposed to on one specific country) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Examples of capital controls for the purposes of this Contract include: direct restrictions on outbound transfers (e.g. a regulation requiring government approval or an outright ban on transactions outside of the country above some threshold), asset freeze orders (e.g. ordering banks not to issue cash en masse), setting a rule on the absolute cap of cash that can be physically carried out of the country (as opposed to merely mandating reporting of an amount), foreign exchange purchase limits, and new reporting requirements on capital transfers. Restrictions on capital from coming into the United States are not included in the Payout Criterion.

opened
Feb 21, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCAPCONTROL-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump impose capital controls?.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago17¢5.87bought no
19d ago22¢9bought yes
1mo ago17¢40bought no
1mo ago17¢10bought no
1mo ago17¢98bought no
2mo ago19¢0.11bought yes
2mo ago19¢4bought yes
2mo ago19¢54bought yes
2mo ago19¢60bought yes
2mo ago19¢6.87bought yes
2mo ago17¢0.11bought no
2mo ago19¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.