Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
YES means Before 2030
- 24h volume
- 0
- 1,663 lifetime
- Open interest
- 448
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 3¢
- 148 × 201 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 3 recent trades
A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 79¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask20088¢
- ask21174¢
- ask1068¢
- ask33764¢
- ask4858¢
- ask25857¢
- ask1035¢
- ask20124¢
- bid14821¢
- bid1411¢
- bid11110¢
- bid1245¢
- bid5255¢
- bid1,0004¢
- bid1,0000¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- opened
- Jun 12, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 22, 2029 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCASECESSION-30
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?.
Recent trades
Over the last 3 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19d ago | 19¢ | 2 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 24¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 17¢ | 5.95 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.