will party win its lawsuit against party?·closes in 16mo

Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217 )?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
200
202 lifetime
Open interest
202
+202 over 7d
Spread
200 × 10 at the touch
24h range
55¢ – 55¢
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
55%1

A YES contract costs 61¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
45%

costs 48¢

YES bid / ask
52¢ / 61¢
NO bid / ask
39¢ / 48¢
24h low 55¢24h high 55¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13490¢
  • ask3789¢
  • ask26585¢
  • ask18584¢
  • ask1183¢
  • ask4779¢
  • ask20062¢
  • ask1061¢
spreadmid 56¢
  • bid20052¢
  • bid2.1825¢
  • bid34
  • bid49
  • bid1,255
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of their law suit against Anthropic (Case 5:26-cv-09217 ) (originally filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, San Jose Division), then the market resolves to Yes.

Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy: Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell achieves the superior outcome if they receive a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded. Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority): If no net monetary advantage exists, Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell achieves the superior outcome if they prevail on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in their original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal, on the greater number of primary causes of action. Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority): If the case terminates without substantive judgment, Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell achieves the superior outcome if (as defendant) all claims are dismissed with prejudice, or (as plaintiff) opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party. Settlements: Superior outcome if net payment flows to Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell; no superior outcome if payment flows from Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell; no party achieves superior outcome if terms are sealed or undisclosed. Key exclusions: Applies only to trial-level resolution — specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes.

opened
Aug 31 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCASEWINMUSIC-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Sony Music Publishing and Warner Chappell win their law suit against Anthropic?.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
17h ago55¢200bought no
6d ago56¢2.18bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.