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Census Bureau apportionment exclusion rule·closes in 28mo

Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants?

YES means Yes

24h volume
380
5,309 lifetime
Open interest
578
Spread
23¢
10 × 10 at the touch
24h range
53¢ – 63¢
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
63%−13

A YES contract costs 60¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
37%

costs 63¢

YES bid / ask
37¢ / 60¢
NO bid / ask
40¢ / 63¢
24h low 53¢24h high 63¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask91381¢
  • ask20080¢
  • ask34776¢
  • ask5275¢
  • ask18565¢
  • ask9864¢
  • ask161¢
  • ask1060¢
spread23¢mid 49¢
  • bid1037¢
  • bid3736¢
  • bid530¢
  • bid17710¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Census Bureau announces its finalization of a rule excluding undocumented immigrants from the population used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Proposed rules and announcements of plans to issue a final rule do NOT qualify.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 14 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCENSUSEXCLUDE-26SEP-29JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago63¢72bought yes
11h ago62¢5bought yes
16h ago53¢21bought no
16h ago53¢154bought no
16h ago53¢10bought no
16h ago55¢72bought no
16h ago56¢5bought no
16h ago54¢19bought no
16h ago59¢10bought no
16h ago54¢11bought no
16h ago57¢1bought no
1d ago76¢199bought yes
1d ago76¢512bought yes
2d ago76¢1,512bought yes
3d ago74¢36bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.