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China obtains EUV·closes in 3mo

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
881 lifetime
Open interest
370
Spread
3¢
5 × 55 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 94¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5060¢
  • ask42859¢
  • ask1,60046¢
  • ask5345¢
  • ask343¢
  • ask20014¢
  • ask41410¢
  • ask559¢
spread3¢mid 7¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid303¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 13 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCHINAEUV-30-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago11¢5bought yes
2mo ago11¢30bought no
2mo ago11¢220bought no
2mo ago11¢30bought no
2mo ago12¢1.12bought no
2mo ago12¢5bought no
2mo ago13¢5bought no
2mo ago19¢49bought yes
2mo ago18¢1bought yes
2mo ago13¢1bought no
2mo ago19¢1bought yes
2mo ago16¢150bought no
2mo ago17¢5bought yes
2mo ago16¢100bought no
2mo ago16¢150bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.