Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2028
- 24h volume
- 0
- 214 lifetime
- Open interest
- 17
- −24 over 30d
- Spread
- 9¢
- 5 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 4 recent trades
A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 73¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask44386¢
- ask20085¢
- ask63270¢
- ask17969¢
- ask7666¢
- ask29664¢
- ask4663¢
- ask20036¢
- bid527¢
- bid20026¢
- bid5015¢
- bid641¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.
- opened
- Jul 13 · 5:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCHINAEUV-30-28JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 4 trades, 11% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d ago | 28¢ | 24 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 36¢ | 13 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 32¢ | 7 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 32¢ | 73 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.