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China obtains EUV·closes in 28mo

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume
0
841 lifetime
Open interest
120
Spread
5¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 56¢
NO bid / ask
44¢ / 49¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask70383¢
  • ask59581¢
  • ask21480¢
  • ask19579¢
  • ask4578¢
  • ask877¢
  • ask20060¢
  • ask556¢
spread5¢mid 54¢
  • bid551¢
  • bid20050¢
  • bid25420¢
  • bid33819¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 13 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCHINAEUV-30-29JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago51¢90bought no
1mo ago58¢3bought yes
1mo ago52¢3bought no
2mo ago53¢2bought no
2mo ago59¢3bought yes
2mo ago60¢1.62bought yes
2mo ago55¢2bought no
2mo ago54¢3bought no
2mo ago57¢3bought yes
2mo ago57¢229bought yes
2mo ago52¢1bought no
2mo ago57¢1bought yes
2mo ago55¢3.57bought yes
2mo ago55¢229bought yes
2mo ago55¢3.57bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.