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Will the Citrini scenario materialize?·closes in 22mo

Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

YES means Yes

24h volume
90
25.93M lifetime
Open interest
168.7k
Spread
1¢
135 × 1,266 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%−1

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 82¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00027¢
  • ask5025¢
  • ask1,46724¢
  • ask1,19623¢
  • ask61822¢
  • ask11621¢
  • ask37820¢
  • ask1,26619¢
spread1¢mid 18¢
  • bid13518¢
  • bid59417¢
  • bid1,31916¢
  • bid2,18315¢
  • bid3,21214¢
  • bid1,18113¢
  • bid1,04012¢
  • bid4,00011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 25 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
2
cap
2
ticker
KXCITRINI-28JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the Citrini scenario happen?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago18¢50bought no
9h ago18¢24bought no
9h ago18¢10bought no
13h ago19¢0.25bought yes
14h ago19¢5.26bought yes
1d ago19¢2bought yes
1d ago18¢3.33bought no
1d ago18¢5.26bought no
1d ago19¢2.4bought yes
1d ago18¢5bought no
2d ago18¢6.09bought no
2d ago18¢61bought no
2d ago18¢8.24bought no
2d ago18¢1.76bought no
3d ago20¢12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.