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Claude Model Release·closes in 10d

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Oct 1, 2026?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2026

24h volume
500
3,444 lifetime
Open interest
2,305
+75 over 7d
Spread
4¢
0 × 2,222 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−2

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7,08098¢
  • ask6,95097¢
  • ask44596¢
  • ask8885¢
  • ask18855¢
  • ask1,60246¢
  • ask74745¢
  • ask2,2224¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26OCT01
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 23 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    8h ago1¢500bought no
    3d ago3¢33bought yes
    3d ago2¢73bought yes
    3d ago3¢100bought yes
    12d ago2¢131bought yes
    18d ago5¢12bought yes
    21d ago7¢317bought yes
    21d ago6¢100bought yes
    24d ago1¢12bought no
    29d ago8¢12bought yes
    1mo ago3¢1,000bought no
    1mo ago4¢25bought no
    1mo ago4¢92bought no
    1mo ago4¢100bought no
    1mo ago4¢10bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.