Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Oct 1, 2026?
YES means Before Oct 1, 2026
- 24h volume
- 500
- 3,444 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,305
- +75 over 7d
- Spread
- 4¢
- 0 × 2,222 at the touch
- 24h range
- 1¢ – 3¢
- 23 recent trades
A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- opened
- Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26OCT01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 23 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | 1¢ | 500 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 3¢ | 33 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 2¢ | 73 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 3¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 12d ago | 2¢ | 131 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 5¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 7¢ | 317 | bought yes |
| 21d ago | 6¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 24d ago | 1¢ | 12 | bought no |
| 29d ago | 8¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 3¢ | 1,000 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 25 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 92 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 100 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 4¢ | 10 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.