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Claude Model Release·closed · NO

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 16, 2026?

YES means Before Sep 16, 2026

24h volume
0
7,464 lifetime
Open interest
3,538
+2 over 7d
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying24% YES · 76% NO

This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14, 8:00 PMSep 16, 4:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
closes
Sep 16 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26SEP16
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 24% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago1¢2bought yes
22d ago6¢469bought yes
22d ago49¢1bought yes
22d ago15¢2bought yes
22d ago2¢1,000bought yes
22d ago8¢2bought yes
22d ago4¢2bought yes
22d ago2¢14bought yes
22d ago25¢2bought yes
22d ago96¢6.97bought yes
1mo ago1¢199bought no
1mo ago1¢23bought no
1mo ago1¢1bought no
1mo ago1¢800bought no
1mo ago2¢800bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.