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Colonize Mars·closes in 283mo

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

YES means Before 2050

24h volume
406
24.8k lifetime
Open interest
10.0k
+531 over 7d
Spread
4¢
10 × 6.13 at the touch
24h range
19¢ – 25¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%−1

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 79¢
24h low 19¢24h high 25¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask475¢
  • ask4.4466¢
  • ask20059¢
  • ask50058¢
  • ask456¢
  • ask6256¢
  • ask50028¢
  • ask6.1325¢
spread4¢mid 23¢
  • bid1021¢
  • bid26020¢
  • bid50020¢
  • bid38619¢
  • bid45218¢
  • bid9017¢
  • bid8.9716¢
  • bid316¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people reside on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 27, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24m ago23¢404bought yes
24m ago22¢2bought yes
1d ago25¢3.87bought yes
1d ago20¢2bought no
1d ago22¢3.01bought yes
1d ago23¢119bought yes
1d ago23¢24bought yes
1d ago22¢5bought yes
1d ago23¢53bought yes
2d ago22¢2bought yes
2d ago19¢2bought no
2d ago22¢2bought yes
2d ago19¢2bought no
2d ago22¢96bought yes
2d ago21¢24bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.