Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
YES means Before 2050
- 24h volume
- 0
- 28.9k lifetime
- Open interest
- 12.5k
- +3,020 over 90d
- Spread
- 3¢
- 18 × 500 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 75¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10058¢
- ask4258¢
- ask2858¢
- ask20050¢
- ask6550¢
- ask10040¢
- ask30528¢
- ask50028¢
- bid1825¢
- bid1.725¢
- bid0.9221¢
- bid9321¢
- bid5321¢
- bid50020¢
- bid7420¢
- bid45218¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people residing on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Reuters
- The Washington Post
- Semafor
- The Information
- The Wall Street Journal
- BBC News
- CNN
- NBC News
- CBS News
- ABC News
- Fox News
- MSNBC
- Scientific American
- Nature
- Science Magazine
- Space News
- SpaceflightNow
- Space.com
- NASA
- the European Space Agency
- SpaceX
- the China National Space Administration
- Roscosmos
- the Indian Space Research Organisation
- the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
- Blue Origin
- Virgin Galactic
- the Mars Society
- the Planetary Society
- The New York Times
- the Associated Press
- Bloomberg News
- opened
- Jun 27, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | 25¢ | 6.56 | bought no |
| 9d ago | 25¢ | 22 | bought no |
| 9d ago | 25¢ | 4 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 28¢ | 1.7 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 28¢ | 32 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 25¢ | 32 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 25¢ | 257 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 28¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 16d ago | 25¢ | 3.03 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 27¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 25¢ | 0.25 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 26¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 32¢ | 16 | bought yes |
| 16d ago | 31¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 16d ago | 31¢ | 4.59 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.