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Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration·closes in 6mo

Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Apr 1, 2027?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2027

24h volume
0
4,194 lifetime
Open interest
1,756
+200 over 7d
Spread
7¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
54%

A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
46%

costs 51¢

YES bid / ask
49¢ / 56¢
NO bid / ask
44¢ / 51¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40992¢
  • ask2,36191¢
  • ask1,34290¢
  • ask35189¢
  • ask44876¢
  • ask5075¢
  • ask20057¢
  • ask556¢
spread7¢mid 53¢
  • bid549¢
  • bid20048¢
  • bid4059¢
  • bid6438¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCOMMISHFDA-26AUG20-APR01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago54¢200bought no
5d ago56¢100bought no
8d ago51¢100bought no
8d ago50¢95bought no
9d ago50¢0.48bought no
9d ago52¢100bought no
10d ago52¢40bought no
10d ago52¢4bought no
11d ago60¢120bought no
13d ago64¢200bought yes
13d ago62¢200bought no
13d ago29¢101bought no
13d ago65¢100bought no
13d ago64¢5bought no
18d ago66¢93bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.