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Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration·closes in 10mo

Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Aug 1, 2027?

YES means Before Aug 1, 2027

24h volume
0
5,265 lifetime
Open interest
822
Spread
7¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 58¢
NO bid / ask
42¢ / 49¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20091¢
  • ask3,64190¢
  • ask3,25389¢
  • ask2,00079¢
  • ask1,81378¢
  • ask2077¢
  • ask5476¢
  • ask20058¢
spread7¢mid 55¢
  • bid551¢
  • bid7550¢
  • bid20049¢
  • bid1,2567¢
  • bid2536¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCOMMISHFDA-26AUG20-AUG01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago79¢28bought yes
6d ago55¢6bought yes
6d ago56¢200bought yes
11d ago18¢16bought no
11d ago65¢100bought no
12d ago64¢10bought no
13d ago27¢18bought no
13d ago65¢100bought no
15d ago67¢192bought no
15d ago68¢100bought no
23d ago78¢200bought no
26d ago78¢100bought no
27d ago77¢54bought no
30d ago76¢200bought yes
30d ago76¢123bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.