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Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration·closes in 2mo

Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Dec 1, 2026?

YES means Before Dec 1, 2026

24h volume
0
1,667 lifetime
Open interest
1,001
Spread
8¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 26¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 26¢
NO bid / ask
74¢ / 82¢
Recent buying25% YES · 75% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask72889¢
  • ask16876¢
  • ask30069¢
  • ask28867¢
  • ask24866¢
  • ask20026¢
spread8¢mid 22¢
  • bid518¢
  • bid20017¢
  • bid7915¢
  • bid524¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid6752¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCOMMISHFDA-26AUG20-DEC01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 25% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago21¢5bought yes
3d ago21¢5bought yes
3d ago21¢5bought yes
3d ago22¢5bought yes
3d ago23¢5bought yes
5d ago21¢200bought no
8d ago23¢30bought yes
9d ago21¢63bought no
10d ago21¢25bought no
10d ago24¢40bought yes
13d ago25¢21bought yes
17d ago22¢200bought no
17d ago25¢252bought no
22d ago32¢10bought yes
22d ago33¢63bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.