Will Congressional pay increase?·closes in 28mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume: 0; 209 lifetime
Open interest: 203; +200 over 90d
Spread: 8¢; 5 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 3 recent trades

Chance of YES

44%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

56%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask

36¢ / 44¢

NO bid / ask

56¢ / 64¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask56589¢
ask20088¢
ask86376¢
ask23974¢
ask40269¢
ask4968¢
ask667¢
ask20044¢

spread8¢mid 40¢

bid536¢
bid20035¢
bid5212¢
bid20010¢
bid1,0773¢
bid501¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This includes increases by any mechanism, including new legislation, the existing automatic cost-of-living adjustment taking effect, or a final non-appealable court order. Back-pay awards, preliminary court rulings, and raises limited to leadership positions or specific offices do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

opened: May 28 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXCONGRESSPAYINCREASE-30-29JAN01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
19d ago	44¢	3	bought yes
1mo ago	43¢	200	bought yes
1mo ago	42¢	3	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.