Will it be reported by the Federal Register that a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 before Jan 1, 2027?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2027
- 24h volume
- 0
- 882 lifetime
- Open interest
- 716
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 7¢
- 5 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 11 recent trades
A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 89¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask50186¢
- ask21585¢
- ask14766¢
- ask46454¢
- ask453¢
- ask127¢
- ask20019¢
- ask518¢
- bid511¢
- bid20010¢
- bid2922¢
- bid501¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A qualifying restriction is an additional duty above 0%, tariff-rate quota, absolute quota, or other binding quantitative import limit. Coverage through a successor or broader provision qualifies only if it fully encompasses the target line. Country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, and other generally applicable conditions do not disqualify coverage, but coverage limited to a product or end-use subset of the line does. The restriction must take effect; merely signing or issuing an instrument with a later effective date does not qualify until that date. Only reporting from the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- opened
- Jul 28 · 4:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCOPPERCABLE-28-27JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 11 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | 13¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 13¢ | 80 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 14¢ | 4.5 | bought no |
| 9d ago | 14¢ | 0.5 | bought no |
| 27d ago | 20¢ | 84 | bought yes |
| 27d ago | 17¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 27d ago | 17¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 29d ago | 11¢ | 0.5 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 17¢ | 0.5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 13¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 9¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.