When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?·closes in 16mo

Will it be reported by the Federal Register that a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
0
714 lifetime
Open interest
600
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 79¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask67389¢
  • ask20088¢
  • ask17679¢
  • ask28267¢
  • ask31765¢
  • ask20029¢
spreadmid 25¢
  • bid521¢
  • bid20020¢
  • bid177
  • bid804
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying restriction is an additional duty above 0%, tariff-rate quota, absolute quota, or other binding quantitative import limit. Coverage through a successor or broader provision qualifies only if it fully encompasses the target line. Country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, and other generally applicable conditions do not disqualify coverage, but coverage limited to a product or end-use subset of the line does. The restriction must take effect; merely signing or issuing an instrument with a later effective date does not qualify until that date. Only reporting from the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCOPPERCABLE-28-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago21¢12bought no
17d ago31¢100bought yes
1mo ago25¢500bought yes
2mo ago22¢28bought no
2mo ago22¢7bought no
2mo ago23¢16bought yes
2mo ago22¢7bought yes
2mo ago22¢10bought yes
2mo ago22¢16bought yes
2mo ago22¢16bought yes
2mo ago22¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.