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CPI·closes in 23d

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?

YES means Above 0.4%

24h volume
2,803
37.0k lifetime
Open interest
18.4k
+15.1k over 7d
Spread
6¢
8.22 × 8.48 at the touch
24h range
74¢ – 90¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%+3

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 21¢

YES bid / ask
79¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 21¢
24h low 74¢24h high 90¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3993¢
  • ask55591¢
  • ask14890¢
  • ask6189¢
  • ask3988¢
  • ask8787¢
  • ask3686¢
  • ask8.4885¢
spread6¢mid 82¢
  • bid8.2279¢
  • bid13778¢
  • bid1177¢
  • bid1476¢
  • bid15075¢
  • bid6.5874¢
  • bid1873¢
  • bid9.6672¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 20 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 14 · 12:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 14 · 1:56 PM UTC
floor
0.4
ticker
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.4
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago86¢1.5bought yes
5m ago86¢17bought yes
5m ago85¢5.26bought yes
5m ago85¢3.22bought yes
5m ago85¢2bought yes
9m ago79¢10bought no
9m ago78¢7.43bought no
9m ago78¢0.14bought no
9m ago78¢0.09bought no
9m ago78¢0.14bought no
9m ago78¢0.09bought no
9m ago78¢0.09bought no
17m ago85¢2bought yes
24m ago86¢0.1bought yes
24m ago86¢3.66bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.