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Inflation·closed · YES

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in September 2026?

YES means Above 3.0%

24h volume
0
64.8k lifetime
Open interest
32.2k
+0 over 30d
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volOct 6Oct 14

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 10:25 PM UTC
closes
Oct 14 · 12:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 14 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
3
ticker
KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T3.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago99¢100bought no
1mo ago99¢785bought yes
1mo ago99¢200bought yes
1mo ago99¢2.5bought yes
1mo ago99¢2.5bought yes
1mo ago99¢2.5bought yes
1mo ago99¢2.5bought yes
1mo ago99¢1,000bought yes
1mo ago98¢15bought no
1mo ago99¢15bought yes
1mo ago98¢81bought no
1mo ago98¢5.47bought no
1mo ago99¢5.47bought yes
1mo ago98¢1bought no
1mo ago99¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.