Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in September 2026?
YES means Above 3.5%
Above 3.6% is a coin flip at 46¢. The month-over-month market has a 60% chance of a 0.5%+ print, which is where the hike case comes from.
- 24h volume
- 0
- 224.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 67.0k
- Spread
- 100¢
- 0 × 0 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
- opened
- Jun 9 · 10:25 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 14 · 12:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Oct 14 · 2:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 3.5
- ticker
- KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T3.5
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.