Carvana Annual KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Carvana Co. report Above 840 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026?

YES means Above 840 thousand

24h volume
0
1,879 lifetime
Open interest
1,085
+215 over 7d
Spread
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 33¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 33¢
NO bid / ask
67¢ / 74¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5496¢
  • ask50078¢
  • ask34175¢
  • ask20370¢
  • ask1060¢
  • ask20035¢
  • ask1034¢
  • ask533¢
spreadmid 30¢
  • bid526¢
  • bid20025¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Carvana Co. reports Above 840000 retail vehicle unit sales in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 10:17 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
840000
ticker
KXCVNAA-28JANUNITS-840000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago35¢200bought no
6d ago36¢10bought no
6d ago34¢5bought no
6d ago35¢7.5bought no
6d ago43¢11bought yes
8d ago77¢2.58bought yes
8d ago73¢4bought yes
11d ago31¢19bought yes
11d ago32¢200bought yes
12d ago24¢15bought no
12d ago24¢50bought no
12d ago26¢5bought no
17d ago28¢165bought yes
25d ago26¢3.65bought yes
2mo ago20¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.