U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $40 trillion

24h volume: 0; 60.7k lifetime
Open interest: 19.4k
Spread: 0¢; 744 × 666 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

100%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

costs 0¢

YES bid / ask

100¢ / 100¢

NO bid / ask

0¢ / 0¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

FRED

opened: Nov 12, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 40
ticker: KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-40

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.