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U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $40 trillion

24h volume
0
60.7k lifetime
Open interest
19.4k
Spread
0¢
744 × 666 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
100%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
0%

costs 0¢

YES bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask666100¢
spread0¢mid 100¢
  • bid744100¢
  • bid65100¢
  • bid1,01599¢
  • bid1197¢
  • bid2597¢
  • bid2297¢
  • bid1597¢
  • bid496¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 12, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
40
ticker
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-40
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago100¢3bought yes
2d ago100¢1bought no
11d ago100¢255bought no
13d ago100¢100bought yes
14d ago100¢500bought no
14d ago100¢535bought no
20d ago100¢40bought yes
20d ago100¢10bought yes
21d ago100¢40bought yes
22d ago100¢244bought no
22d ago100¢314bought no
22d ago100¢87bought no
22d ago100¢69bought no
23d ago100¢465bought no
25d ago100¢1,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.