Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
YES means Andy Beshear
- 24h volume
- 10
- 5,630 lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,630
- +10 over 7d
- Spread
- 49¢
- 5 × 5 at the touch
- 24h range
- 7¢ – 7¢
- 19 recent trades
A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 93¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask8599¢
- ask55097¢
- ask7595¢
- ask1058¢
- ask556¢
- bid57¢
- bid56¢
- bid205¢
- bid243¢
- bid702¢
- bid1001¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- opened
- May 21 · 9:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Nov 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-ABES
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 208¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 19 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13h ago | 7¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 8d ago | 6¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 18d ago | 7¢ | 35 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 12¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 10¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 488 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 10¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 11¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 10¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 9¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 10¢ | 500 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.