KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD·closes in 26mo

Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

YES means Pete Buttigieg

24h volume
0
7,235 lifetime
Open interest
7,214
+210 over 7d
Spread
16¢
2 × 10 at the touch
24h range
7¢ – 9¢
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 93¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
May 21 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-PBUT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 208¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago200bought yes
2d ago10bought yes
7d ago10bought no
7d ago9bought yes
10d ago1.56bought yes
16d ago30bought yes
16d ago200bought yes
28d ago35bought yes
1mo ago500bought yes
1mo ago494bought yes
1mo ago6bought yes
1mo ago29bought yes
1mo ago471bought yes
1mo ago500bought yes
1mo ago6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.