Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run?·closes in 26mo

Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

YES means Andy Beshear

24h volume
200
11.9k lifetime
Open interest
7,144
Spread
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 22¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%1

A YES contract costs 26¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 26¢
NO bid / ask
74¢ / 77¢
24h low 22¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying25% YES · 75% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00099¢
  • ask6099¢
  • ask10298¢
  • ask475¢
  • ask10051¢
  • ask550¢
  • ask8.9736¢
  • ask20026¢
spreadmid 25¢
  • bid20023¢
  • bid4.9117¢
  • bid5016¢
  • bid70
  • bid40
  • bid58
  • bid464
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
Sep 16, 2025 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-ABES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 25% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago22¢200bought yes
2d ago23¢10bought yes
2d ago22¢200bought yes
4d ago22¢115bought yes
4d ago21¢4.91bought yes
5d ago21¢200bought yes
6d ago22¢200bought yes
6d ago20¢200bought yes
6d ago18¢1bought yes
9d ago20¢95bought yes
9d ago20¢23bought yes
14d ago18¢10bought yes
18d ago18¢49bought yes
18d ago25¢0.15bought yes
18d ago18¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.