Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run?·closes in 26mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
0
4,039 lifetime
Open interest
3,118
+801 over 30d
Spread
550 × 5 at the touch
24h range
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 100¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10915¢
  • ask2514¢
  • ask13010¢
  • ask203
  • ask147
  • ask5
  • ask10
  • ask5
spreadmid
  • bid550
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
Sep 16, 2025 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-AOCA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago10bought yes
7d ago1bought no
7d ago153bought yes
7d ago1bought yes
7d ago97bought yes
7d ago100bought yes
7d ago343bought yes
7d ago10bought yes
15d ago10bought yes
15d ago37bought yes
23d ago1.02bought yes
23d ago0.74bought yes
23d ago4.04bought yes
25d ago5.54bought no
25d ago5.54bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.