Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run?·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
0
17.5k lifetime
Open interest
8,198
+3,786 over 90d
Spread
102 × 10 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
/ 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 92¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

10¢20¢30¢40¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,06736¢
  • ask11335¢
  • ask5032¢
  • ask5028¢
  • ask20019¢
  • ask33318¢
  • ask25017¢
  • ask1010¢
spreadmid
  • bid102
  • bid189
  • bid5
  • bid550
  • bid1,000
  • bid47
  • bid5,004
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
Sep 16, 2025 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago16¢24bought yes
4d ago16¢30bought yes
6d ago21¢2.83bought no
6d ago20¢33bought no
6d ago22¢14bought no
6d ago21¢22bought no
6d ago20¢200bought no
7d ago23¢2bought yes
7d ago25¢54bought yes
7d ago23¢1bought yes
7d ago22¢3.8bought no
8d ago25¢3.8bought yes
9d ago22¢6.57bought no
10d ago25¢5bought no
10d ago25¢0.3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.