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US defaults·closes in 3mo

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?

YES means Defaults

24h volume
0
1,655 lifetime
Open interest
1,186
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
254 × 2,983 at the touch
24h range
–
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 99¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask26495¢
  • ask5,00095¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask3,00015¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask8204¢
  • ask3943¢
  • ask2,9833¢
spread2¢mid 2¢
  • bid2541¢
  • bid2100¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDEFAULT-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in US defaults before 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15d ago3¢18bought yes
20d ago3¢106bought yes
27d ago3¢220bought yes
2mo ago3¢17bought yes
2mo ago1¢53bought no
2mo ago3¢17bought yes
2mo ago4¢17bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.