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US defaults·closes in 28mo

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2028?

YES means Defaults

24h volume
0
3,522 lifetime
Open interest
1,654
+1,654 over 90d
Spread
3¢
205 × 1,658 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 92¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask33070¢
  • ask1,70166¢
  • ask3165¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask1,65811¢
spread3¢mid 10¢
  • bid2058¢
  • bid3304¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 19 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDEFAULT-28DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in US defaults before 2029?.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago10¢54bought yes
9d ago11¢146bought yes
26d ago11¢1.01bought yes
1mo ago8¢1.01bought no
1mo ago12¢560bought yes
1mo ago11¢400bought yes
1mo ago8¢1,000bought yes
1mo ago8¢200bought yes
1mo ago8¢400bought yes
1mo ago8¢560bought yes
1mo ago8¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.