US defaults·closes in 40mo

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2029?

YES means Defaults

24h volume: 0; 1 lifetime
Open interest: 1; +1 over 90d
Spread: 9¢; 200 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 1 recent trades

Chance of YES

12%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

88%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask

4¢ / 13¢

NO bid / ask

87¢ / 96¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask87686¢
ask20085¢
ask20013¢

spread9¢mid 9¢

bid2004¢
bid492¢
bid501¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury

opened: Aug 19 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXDEFAULT-29DEC31

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in US defaults before 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
29d ago	12¢	1	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.