First Democratic contest 2028·closes in 19mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

YES means Nevada

24h volume
0
4,437 lifetime
Open interest
2,708
Spread
0 × 60 at the touch
24h range
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7529¢
  • ask2522¢
  • ask1,36521¢
  • ask28120¢
  • ask212¢
  • ask500
  • ask1,476
  • ask60
spreadmid
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Nevada holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

    opened
    Jul 27 · 5:07 PM UTC
    closes
    Apr 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Apr 8, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST-28-NV
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 29 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2mo ago50bought no
    2mo ago41bought no
    2mo ago91bought no
    2mo ago451bought no
    2mo ago250bought no
    2mo ago25bought no
    2mo ago15bought no
    2mo ago52bought no
    2mo ago25bought no
    2mo ago91bought no
    2mo ago50bought no
    2mo ago83bought no
    2mo ago18bought no
    2mo ago115bought no
    2mo ago31bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.