Who will DSA endorse for president?·closes in 18mo

Will the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) national organization endorse Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic primaries before Mar 1, 2028?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
0
30 lifetime
Open interest
26
Spread
26 × 450 at the touch
24h range
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 83¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2299¢
  • ask4,17495¢
  • ask7993¢
  • ask5592¢
  • ask45025¢
spreadmid 21¢
  • bid2617¢
  • bid20016¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) national organization publicly endorses Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic primaries before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the candidate's election in the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic primaries, made after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2028. The statement must be public (not private communications) and must specifically reference that race or be clearly in context of it. The endorsement must come directly from DSA or through its official channels. The following scenarios would resolve to YES: DSA states that it endorses the candidate for president DSA states that it supports the candidate, with clear reference to the race DSA releases an official endorsement through its national channels DSA allows its name or logo to be used in the candidate's campaign materials Positive comments without explicit support, or policy endorsements without a candidate endorsement, do not qualify. Ranking a candidate anything other than first in a ranked-choice process does not qualify, and publication of poll or ranked-choice results, whether national or chapter-level, is not itself an endorsement; only the resulting decision of the national organization qualifies. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Statements of obvious sarcasm, or which are immediately followed by clarifications that DSA is joking, are not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Only the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) national organization satisfies the Payout Criterion, acting through its national governing bodies or processes and announced through DSA's national channels. Qualifying decisions include a resolution or vote of the DSA National Convention, a decision of the National Political Committee, and a binding vote of the national membership. An endorsement, chapter poll result, or statement of support from a local or state DSA chapter, caucus, or working group does not qualify unless the national organization adopts it. A statement that a candidate has or will have DSA's endorsement qualifies if the only condition attached is that the candidate enter or remain in the race. A statement conditioned on anything else, such as winning a primary or adopting a policy position, does not. The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement. If DSA endorses more than one listed candidate, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves Yes at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01, and all non-endorsed named-candidate strikes resolve No. If no qualifying endorsement occurs before Mar 1, 2028, the "No one" strike resolves Yes and every named-candidate strike resolves No. An endorsement of a candidate who is not listed resolves every market No. If a candidate withdraws from, suspends their campaign for, ceases to be a candidate in, declines to enter, or loses the primary or general election for the race before a qualifying endorsement of that candidate is confirmed, their strike may resolve to No in the sole discretion of the Exchange.

opened
Aug 24 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDSAENDORSE28-28MAR01-AOCA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 22¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22d ago22¢22bought yes
22d ago22¢0.01bought yes
22d ago19¢0.01bought no
24d ago23¢4.12bought yes
24d ago23¢4.12bought yes
27d ago18¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.