Democratic Senate seats·closes in 29mo

Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

YES means Below 45

24h volume: 0; 1,444 lifetime
Open interest: 1,166; +0 over 30d
Spread: 6¢; 2,019 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

14%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

86%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask

8¢ / 14¢

NO bid / ask

86¢ / 92¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask3684¢
ask1383¢
ask17065¢
ask1258¢
ask1,39157¢
ask67354¢
ask2,00515¢
ask514¢

spread6¢mid 11¢

bid2,0198¢
bid5667¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

United States Congress

opened: May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes: Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap: 45
ticker: KXDSENATESEATS-29-B45

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 203¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.