Democratic Senate seats·closes in 29mo

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

YES means 52

24h volume
0
373 lifetime
Open interest
362
+169 over 30d
Spread
15 × 5 at the touch
24h range
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
/ 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 93¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 26Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,60386¢
  • ask20085¢
  • ask5284¢
  • ask49661¢
  • ask30458¢
  • ask1,39057¢
  • ask2,00013¢
  • ask512¢
spreadmid 10¢
  • bid15
  • bid2,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has exactly 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
52
cap
52
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E52
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 203¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago13¢5bought yes
2d ago14¢164bought yes
19d ago14¢1bought yes
2mo ago13¢83bought yes
2mo ago12¢20bought yes
2mo ago12¢5bought yes
2mo ago12¢50bought yes
2mo ago13¢29bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.