Democratic Senate seats·closes in 29mo

Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?

YES means 54

24h volume
157
458 lifetime
Open interest
436
+430 over 90d
Spread
5 × 2,000 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 11¢
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%1

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
24h low 24h high 11¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,00095¢
  • ask23694¢
  • ask1593¢
  • ask1,57956¢
  • ask455¢
  • ask2,000
spreadmid
  • bid5
  • bid2,000
  • bid200
  • bid100.0k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has exactly 54 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
54
cap
54
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-29-E54
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 203¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago157bought yes
2d ago5bought yes
2d ago10¢231bought yes
19d ago10¢1bought yes
25d ago10¢10bought yes
2mo ago11¢13bought yes
2mo ago11¢25bought yes
2mo ago10¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.