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Democratic Presidential ticket·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?

YES means Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
1,459
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
6,841
+155 over 7d
Spread
1¢
8,599 × 877 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−8

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11225¢
  • ask11215¢
  • ask210¢
  • ask1128¢
  • ask36¢
  • ask1124¢
  • ask1,0003¢
  • ask8772¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid8,5991¢
  • bid1,4281¢
  • bid1,6661¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid1,8490¢
  • bid13.3k0¢
  • bid2,5000¢
  • bid16.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic presidential nominee is Gavin Newsom AND the Democratic vice presidential nominee is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Order matters: the first person listed is the presidential nominee and the second is the vice presidential nominee. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Presidential Nominee (PRESNOM), Vice Presidential Nominee (VPRESNOM). The presidential nominee (listed first) is resolved under PRESNOM and the vice presidential nominee (listed second) is resolved under VPRESNOM.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 17 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 14, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDTICKET-28NOV07-GNEWAOC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago1¢27bought no
4h ago1¢1,401bought no
4h ago1¢30bought no
2d ago9¢1,000bought no
6d ago9¢0.52bought yes
6d ago9¢0.52bought yes
6d ago7¢3bought no
6d ago10¢9.11bought no
6d ago10¢28bought no
6d ago10¢1,000bought no
6d ago11¢10bought no
7d ago11¢5bought no
7d ago11¢2bought no
7d ago11¢2bought no
7d ago11¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.