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Earthquake in California·closes in 28mo

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
27
14.0k lifetime
Open interest
8,489
+2,459 over 90d
Spread
3¢
473 × 207 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 12¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%+1

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 88¢
24h low 12¢24h high 12¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25130¢
  • ask5025¢
  • ask4320¢
  • ask10019¢
  • ask8218¢
  • ask10017¢
  • ask4,60016¢
  • ask20715¢
spread3¢mid 14¢
  • bid47312¢
  • bid1,00311¢
  • bid889¢
  • bid3008¢
  • bid3007¢
  • bid3006¢
  • bid583¢
  • bid1,4802¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago12¢27bought no
3d ago11¢7.42bought no
4d ago15¢19bought yes
5d ago17¢1.46bought yes
5d ago17¢15bought yes
5d ago18¢18bought yes
5d ago16¢5bought yes
7d ago14¢2bought no
7d ago14¢15bought no
8d ago17¢5bought yes
8d ago18¢22bought yes
8d ago12¢5.69bought no
8d ago13¢10bought no
9d ago17¢1.31bought no
9d ago17¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.